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December 14, 2004

Still leaking goals and it's got to stop now!

The Boss admitted after the game that The Gunners would not retain the Title if we can't sort out our defensive woes soon. Luckily we're still well-placed as the run in to the New Year commences. The Christmas week games can, as is the case in most years, have a big effect on a team's placing in the Premier League table, with four or five games within a two-week period. They're also widely regarded as games which will either provide a boost for, or harm, morale as a team moves into the final title run-in through May.

Right now we're in a good position to perhaps take advantage of the schedule, still being just five points behind Chel$ki in the table with a relatively easy fixture list over Christmas and the New Year. Up next is Portsmouth who are suffering after the resignation of Redknapp and his management team. On Boxing Day we're hosting Fulham - whose performance in yesterday's game against United was flattered by the flat, unimaginative play of the northerners, then it's off to St James' Park to face the Toon in midweek. New Year's Day sees us travel to The Valley to face Charlton Athletic - a team with a lot of promise, most of which has not been translated into results, having drawn two and lost two of their eight home games so far this season - and then in midweek we host Citeh, who have only won two of their eight away fixtures.

With these opponents, I strongly feel we should be able to come away with the full fifteen points from the games leading to the first of our FA Cup weekends. If so, we can at worst be just five points behind the Rent Boys - with five months left in the season.

Chelsea themselves have some tough fixtures. Norwich on Saturday should be an easy three for them, but Villa's visit on Boxing Day may prove a tougher nut to crack. The Villans haven't won at The Beach for a couple of years now, but the results have been tight and a draw is certainly possible. After that, they've probably got a three-point trip to Fratton Park and an almost-certainly tough visit to Anfield on New Year's Day. With any luck, the Scousers would be able to sneak a win there and force Chelsea to drop more points. The final game of the holiday period for The Rent Boys is the visit of the surprisingly robust Boro but they'll probably take all three points - though maybe the Romford Pele can score a screamer or two (you know he doesn't like Chel$ki)! My best case prediction would be that The Gunners would be tied on points after the New Year's Day games, but more likely is that we'll be just three behind.

Everton's Christmas challenges are light with a trip to Ewood Park to meet relegation threatened Blackburn Rovers on Saturday, followed by the visit of Citeh on Boxing Day, a midweek trip to The Valley, popping to The Lane to meet The Scum on New Year's Day, then hosting Pompey at Goodison Park. None of these teams seems to particularly threaten The Blue Scousers - though given the surprise of their League position this late into the year, who knows what might happen. Hopefully they'll lose some points and fall into third or fourth.

Manchester United's schedule is like ours - no serious opposition, but they'll have to play better than they did yesterday against Fulham at Craven Cottage if they want a chance to position themselves for the New Year's chase for the post. Next week they face Palace at home, which should be an easy match for them, then they host the often-upsetting Bolton Wanderers on Boxing Day. Bolton have a habit of upsetting the Mancs at home, having beaten them twice in the last three years (2002, 2003). They were even able to hold them to a draw at the Reebok earlier this year and have done the same to both us and the Rent Boys. This is probably the toughest fixture for the Mancs and the most likely to drop them points. In the middle of the Christmas week they travel to Villa Park, then they're off to the Riverside to face 'Boro on New Year's Day and then The Scum visit Old Trafford for their normal thrashing there. I guess United could lose points over the next three weeks, but they'll still be well within range of the Title assuming that their normal late-season win-streak sets in soon (I still believe personally that ManUre are the biggest threat to our being able to retain the Title, despite Chelsea's form this season so far).

How we progress as the New Year begins will be dependent on our fixing the problems in our defence this year. Before I'm accused of buying into media hype of "a crisis at the back", perhaps it is worth noting the difference in that performance between last season and this. At the end of last season, our final table stats looked like this:

So far this season, with just two games left before the half-way point, our stats are:

The biggest fact that stares at you from this comparison (besides the obvious points that we have lost two games and drawn as many games at Highbury as we did through all of last season) is the massive difference in how many goals our defence has allowed. Through all of last season we allowed just 26 goals into our net - 14 at home and 12 away. Although we are well on our way to replicate our performance in scoring goals last season, we have already allowed other teams to score 22 goals - 11 at home and 11 away. This means that just two games away from the midpoint of the season, we have let in just four goals less than we did in the entire season last time round. More worryingly, half of those goals have come from set-plays. Going back to the original article, The Boss is quoted as saying:

While I can agree about the inexperience of our makeshift midfield - especially considering the loss of Gilberto, whose play as a defensive midfielder often prevents the opposition from getting into dangerous positions from which they have a chance of scoring - I find it difficult to believe the argument that our fullbacks are short - after all, as The Sun points out, they haven't suddenly shrunk in the last few months. Obviously, the absence of Sol at the back made a big difference to the strength of our defence, especially in defending against balls in the air, but Ashley's been burned a few times this season and our goalkeepers seem to be lacking confidence in those in front of them. Hopefully a good run of results (and the possible return of both Edu and Gilberto in the New Year) will change this around. We can normally be guaranteed to score but if our defence can not sort things out at the back then we'll probably have to suffer a few more last minute draws or losses over the next few months. We could also do with not giving away the ball stupidly in midfield anymore, but that's a subject for another article.

Posted by gcurtis at December 14, 2004 10:55 AM

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Posted by: andy at December 14, 2004 12:50 PM

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